Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report:

January 2024

Santa Clara County (SCC): Home Prices Up, Sales Down in December

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 18.5% compared to last year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 12.7% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 0.7%, year-over-year, in December. There were 406 homes sold in Santa Clara County last month. The monthly average since 2000 is 987.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 103.9% to 103.1%.

Pending sales were down 61.1% year-over-year.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down for the ninth month in a row. It fell 47.2% compared to last year. As of January 5th, there were 260 homes for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 2,703.

Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all homes listed for sale at the current rate of sales, fell from 29 days to 19 days. The average since 2003 is 89.

It took twenty-three days to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed for sale to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for condos was up 2.4% compared to last December. The average sales price gained 4.1% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 7.6% year-over-year. There were 184 condos sold in December.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 102.1% to 100.5%.

Condo inventory was down 31.1% compared to last December.

As of January 5th, there were 155 condos for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 757.

Days of inventory fell from thirty-eight to twenty-five.

It took an average of thirty-one days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

December 2023 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

 

Want straight answers to your real estate questions?

Call 650-305-1111 or send me a note to schedule a complementary & confidential one-on-one meeting.

VISIT http://avi.rereport.com/ for a free on-line market analysis of your property.

You can also perform your own personal search of properties for sale.

Twenty-Twenty-Three Exits (SCC & SMC)

Dec 29, 2023 — We close the door on 2023 this week, a year to which lenders, homeowners and potential buyers will likely bid “good riddance.” Although they have declined meaningfully at the tail end of it, average mortgage rates still remain well above their best levels of 2023, not that those levels were all that great. However, the retreat for mortgage rates from about 22-year highs does at least provide some optimism as we move into next year.

Although you might not think so, at least some typical patterns were seen over the last 12 months. Once the Fed lifted short-term rates to 22-year highs in July, mortgage and other long-term interest rates kicked higher on a “higher for longer” message from the central bank. However, as often seems the case, investors pushed market-based interest rates to a place where, given economic fundamentals, they likely overshot where they should have been; now, at least part of the recent decline in rates is likely from a rush of investors to the other side of the see-saw. This is a regular occurrence in bond markets, and so pretty typical happenstance.

The other common pattern is that during a rate-hike cycle, the Fed eventually lifts short-term rates to a place where inflation and economic growth are damped… and so despite high short-term rates, long-term fixed mortgage rates decline, and typically well in advance of the Fed making any change to policy whatsoever. The last such example of this was in 2018, when the market and the Fed traded volleys during the 2017-2018 tightening cycle, and short- and long-term rates rose. In December 2018, when the federal funds rate was lifted to as “high” as 2.5% and mortgage rates rose to just about the 5% mark… they then fell by about a percentage point and a quarter, long before the Fed first trimmed rates by 25 basis points in late July 2019.

So here we are again, some unknown bit of distance from the first cut of the next downcycle for short-term rates, looking at long-term fixed-rate mortgage rates that have already declined 1.18% from last October’s peak. So far, what took about seven months to accomplish last time has occurred very rapidly this time, as the present decline has occurred in just an nine-week span. Such a pronounced moved in such short order feels to us like a bit of an over-correction, and one that might be followed by a bit of a snap back. For that, we’ll simply need to wait and see, but the start of a new quarter and new year is known to bring a change in the interest rate pattern — sometimes for better, sometimes not.

With mortgage rates down a considerable amount, we’ll expect to see at least some pick up in existing home sales before long. That said, not just yet, as the number of folks signing contracts to purchase existing homes in November remained at the same low level as was seen in October. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index remained at a 71.6 value for a second consecutive month, but that’s not surprising, as mortgage rates started November at 22-year highs. Although mortgage rates were lower at the end of the month, the kick off of the holiday season tends to put potential homebuyers on the sidelines. even in years where there are more homes available to buy and at lower prices, too. The flat reading for the PHSI for November suggests little improvement for existing home sales for December and may also exert a little drag on January closings.

It might be hard to find anyone in or around the mortgage and housing business who will lament the passing of 2023 into history, and that of course includes potential homebuyers and sellers. Outside of brief periods of what might pass for normal conditions — mostly in the time between perhaps 2016 and 2019 — distortions have been the order of business in the housing market now since the housing crash and Great Recession. As the calendar turns, we can hope that we are at the beginning of a trend back toward normal again, but this may be a bit of a protracted process, much as it was coming out of the last rough patch.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 

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Real estate related Articles

Forbes 
01-10-2024

Mortgage Rates Forecast For 2024: When Will Rates Finally Come Down?
By Robin Rothstein

San Jose Spotlight
10-31-2023

Silicon Valley’s hottest housing markets lose residents

By Ben Irwin

Nerdwallet

Rent vs buy – what’s right for you?

CFPB
09-29-2017

Seven factors that determine your mortgage interest rate

By Nicole Shea

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’ and http://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.

For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit http://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Accelerates in October

DECEMBER 26, 2023: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for October 2023 show that 11of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to CLICK HERE

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Home Prices  & Sales Up

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County rose 7.6% in December, year-over-year. There were 213 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 3% compared to last year.

The average sales price gained 11.8% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 102.6% to 101.1%.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 34.1% compared to last year. As of January 5th, there were 162 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, fell from thirty-nine to twenty-three days.

It took thirty-two days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos fell 1.7% year-over-year.

Year-over-year, the average sales price was flat.

Condo sales were up 47.5% year-over-year. There were 59 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was down 12.4% year-over-year.

As of January 5th, there were 99 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory fell from seventy-six to fifty.

It took an average of fifty-two days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

December 2023 Sales Statistics (SMC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at: http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

 

 

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 

 

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