Market Trends Report

Enough For The Fed? (SCC & SMC)

Dec 2, 2022 — Over the last several months, investors have been searching for signs of the kinds of economic slowness and tempering in inflation that would give the Fed reason to slow the size or pace of rate hikes. While there have been some mixed signals over the last month or two, the open question is whether there are enough to date to see the Fed comfortable with a smaller increase at the next FOMC meeting.

That get-together is only about ten days away at this point, and the answer to the question of “75 basis point or 50 basis points” in increase still isn’t quite clear. In recent weeks, investors have more strongly leaned toward 50 basis points, a consensus supported by some improvement — or at least a leveling off — of inflation pressures in recent months. The Fed’s preferred measure of price tracking (the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) measure) had been as high as an annualized 5.3% in February, meandered its way down to an improved 4.7% by July, but then re-firmed to 5.2% in September. The latest report covering October showed a slight cooling again, back to a 5% rate. While steadying inflation is a good sign, there has been little measurable or sustained progress toward lower inflation to be seen so far.

So inflation is somewhat better but still not good.

Outlays for construction projects declined by 0.3% in October. That’s not a big surprise given that residential construction is the largest component and has been in a funk for months now. Spending on residential projects fell by 0.3%, a fifth consecutive decline, and spending for non-residential projects also dipped by 0.8%, although this came after a five-month string of increases. Public works spending helped keep the overall number from declining further, rising by 0.6% in October, making it five increases in a row.

As anyone who follows mortgage or real estate markets can tell you, housing markets have been crushed this year by mortgage rates that more than doubled since last December. Already-slow sales of existing homes are poised to slow even further, according to the Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors. This measure of signed contracts foretells home sales a month or two into the future; October’s PHSI rang in at just 77.1,  a figure that matches an all-time low (20+ years, and excluding the pandemic hard-stop months in early 2020). As well, not all contracts signed turn into closings, but the 4.6% decline in contracts executed in October already suggests that sales in the next month or two are likely to come in lower than the 4.43 million (annualized) rate recorded for October. We’ll need to wait until late December for November’s sales, and it’ll be nearly February before we learn what happened in December… and all that before the seasonal slowdown for home sales typically seen in January and into February impact the market, too.

Requests for mortgage credit shrank by 0.8% in the week ending November 25, but since that was a holiday week, it’s hard to get a clean reading on activity. That said, applications for purchase-money mortgages rose by 3.8%, a third week of gains as potential homebuyers look to take advantage of the recent decline in mortgage rates. Homeowners, seemingly had better things to do than to consider refinancing at these rate levels, and refinance application dropped 12.9% for the week.

Mortgage rates have been somewhat lower in recent weeks as the chances for a less-aggressive Fed have grown. That mini-trend seems likely to be in place for at least the early part of next week, and odds favor that we’ll see another small decline in the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday at noon. We’d reckon the expected decline to be a handful of basis points, probably five or so.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

For a focused review of current and historical market trends go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports and click “change’’ see below

Real Estate Related Articles

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’
and www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.
For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit https://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Decelerated In September

NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 29, 2022: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2022 show that home price gains declined across the United States. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to CLICK HERE

Is it time to seriously consider investing in real estate?

Signup for my Real Estate Investment Alerts and you’ll receive my real estate investment opportunities.

San Mateo County (SMC): Market Continues to Weaken

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County fell for the fifteenth month in a row, year-over-year. They were down 40.5% in November. There were 220 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was down 19.2% compared to last year.

The average sales price fell 5.3% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 100.4% to 98.9%. That’s the first time the ratio has been below 100% since March 2012.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was up 85.6% compared to last year. As of December 5th, there were 399 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, fell from sixty-two to fifty-three days.

It took twenty-five days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos fell 7% year-over-year.

Year-over-year, the average sales price fell 8.7%.

Condo sales were down 26.7% year-over-year. There were 77 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was up 13.4% year-over-year.

As of December 5th, there were 144 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory fell from sixty to fifty-four.

It took an average of forty-six days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

November 2022 Sales Statistics (SMC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to

https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

Looking to Downsize?

Keep Your Property Tax Base

Under Proposition 60, California homeowners 55 and older get a one-time chance to sell their primary residence and transfer its property-tax assessment to a new one, but the market value of the new home generally must be equal to or less than the market value of the old home.

Prop. 60 was designed to help longtime California homeowners who want to downsize but don’t want to give up the low property-tax assessment they enjoy in their existing home.

Under Proposition 13, homes are reassessed for property-tax purposes when there is a change in ownership or new construction. In between ownership changes, the assessed value can go up by an inflation rate not to exceed 2% a year. (Homeowners can get temporary reductions when property values go down.)

Prop. 60 lets homeowners 55 or older transfer their base-year value from an existing primary residence to a new primary residence, but there are restrictions.

The new home must be in the same county as the old one or, as Proposition 90 added, in one of eleven counties that accept transfers of base-year value from other counties. The eleven counties are: Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Tuolumne and Ventura.

Also, the new home must be purchased or built within two years – before or after – the sale of the original property.

If the new house is purchased before the old house is sold, the market value of the new house on its purchase date cannot exceed 100% of the old home’s market value on the date it is sold.