Market Trends Report

The Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trends Report: September 2021

In this issue

Santa Clara County (SCC): Home Sales Prices Continue to be Strong

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 0.9% from July. Nevertheless, it was up 17.9% compared to last year. That’s the twenty-second month in a row the median sales price has been higher than the year before.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes rose 1.0% from July. It was up 19.9% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio went from 109.6% to 108.8%. Multiple offers continue to be the norm.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 13.4% year-over-year in August. There were 972 homes sold in Santa Clara County last month. The monthly average since 2000 is 987.

This was the twelfth month in a row that home sales were higher than the year before.

Pending sales were up 22.8% year-over-year.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 23.3% compared to last year. That is the twenty-fourth month in a row inventory has been lower than the year before. As of September 5th, there were 690 homes for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 2,703.

Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all homes listed for sale at the current rate of sales, stayed at 21 days. The average since 2003 is 89.

It took only fourteen days to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed for sale to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for condos was up 10.6% compared to last August. The average sales price gained 10.2% year-over-year.

Condo sales were up 55.6% year-over-year. There were 448 condos sold in August.

The sales price to list price ratio went from 104.6% to 103.5%.

Condo inventory fell 34% compared to last August.

As of September 5th, there were 392 condos for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 757.

Days of inventory rose one day to twenty-six.

It took an average of eighteen days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

August 2021 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending     listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

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Want straight answers to your real estate questions?
Call 650-305-1111 or send me a note to schedule a complementary & confidential one-on-one meeting.

VISIT https://avi.rereport.com/ for a free on-line market analysis of your property.
You can also perform your own personal search of properties for sale.

Housing Holding Up (SCC & SMC)

August 27, 2021 — The housing market continued to power along into July, eking out modest gains in what seemed like an extended spring homebuying season this year. The open question is whether the solid activity can be maintained as we move forward, as the challenges facing homebuyers continue to mount.

Sales of existing homes leapt strongly into late last year, running at a pace as strong as an annualized 6.73 million units sold last October. Since then, more headwinds have formed, chief among them very limited supply of homes available to buy. This spring, the lack of houses to buy damped the pace of sales to a more moderate (though still strong) level during the normally most active portion of the year for home buying. Surging demand but no supply expressed itself in classic fashion, with homes coming onto the market selling in very short order and at prices that are increasing at unheard-of rates.

That situation hasn’t much improved, and price increases are running at levels that are far outstripping income gains with little end in sight. Affordability is starting to pinch, at least for homebuyers on the margins, where high and still rising prices are both rapidly increasing the funds needed for a down payment and lifting the monthly carry cost of owning a home.

In July, sales of existing homes managed a 2% increase over June, with sales rising to a 5.99 million annual pace. The National Association of Realtors also noted that the supply of homes managed to improve a little bit, too, rising to 2.6 months of supply at the present rate of sale, up from 2.5 months in June. Compared to last year, the median price of a home sold was “only” 17.8% higher, a relative improvement over May and June’s 23%+ comparative increases. That said, the median price of a home sold last month was $359,900, down just a little from June’s all-time record. When they do come on to market, homes are still flying off the shelves, with the median time from listing to sale holding at 17 days for a third month, suggesting there is still plenty of demand to be sated.

Sales of new homes also downshifted during the spring selling season. After posting an annualized 993,000 sales rate in January, sales throttled back to just 701,000 annual in June, but managed a 1% increase in July, breaking a three-month string of declines. New homes aren’t suffering from supply issues per se, inventory levels for new stock increased to 6.2 months of supply at the present rate of sale, with an actual 367,000 units ready to be sold, the highest monthly figure since November 2008. For new homes, it’s more about cost (median price of $390,500 last month) and location, since large housing developments often happen far from city centers, often necessitating long commutes. That wasn’t a problem last year when the pandemic led to a lot of work-from-anywhere opportunities (and still is) but with many businesses planning to eventually return to offices it has again become a consideration for many.

For their part in all this, mortgage rates have been very well behaved, even if they are generally higher than they were to start 2021. Eventually, higher mortgage rates will also add to the cost troubles for buyers; this might actually be a good thing, as it would help temper demand, allowing inventories of homes for sale to increase, which in turn would help to damp outsized price increases. At some point, either still-higher prices or higher mortgage rates will damp demand, but which will push the market to the tipping point first (or when) is still not clear.

Housing continues to have solid demographic tailwinds behind it but also the benefit of a strong (if uneven) economy, one goosed by all manner of monetary policy and fiscal supports and stimulus. In the second quarter of 2021, Gross Domestic Product expanded at a 6.6% annual rate, up from the first quarter and an upward revision from the preliminary estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. As most already know, price pressures were elevated during the period, with the overall Personal Consumption Expenditure price index up by 6.5% overall and 6.1% at the core, about a 40-year high and well above the Fed’s desired levels. In a speech at an economic symposium in Jackson Hole (WY) on Friday, Fed Chair Powell said that in his judgement that the “substantial further progress” test has been met for inflation, and that the Fed believes that “the outlook is for continued progress toward maximum employment.” This suggests that we’ll see a plan for tapering of asset purchases soon, probably at the FOMC meeting next month.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

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Send me a note with subject “Real Estate Investment Alerts.”

For a focused review of current and historical market trends go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports and click “change’’ see below

 

QUARTZ
8-26-20211

California passed a bill that could dramatically increase its housing stock

By Camille Squires

WSJ
7-27- 2021

Work-From-Anywhere Perks Give Silicon Valley a New Edge in Talent War

By Katherine Bindley

San Francisco Chronicle
7-26-20211

Fourplexes on every S.F. single-family lot? S.F. supervisor juices proposed housing legislation to allow more homes

By Heather Knight

WSJ
7-21-20211

The Shortage of Starter Homes Extends Beyond Major Cities

By Julia Carpenter


California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units
on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’
and www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.
For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit https://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

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The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

 

Investors Corner

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX SHOWS ANNUAL HOME PRICE GAIN TOPPED 18.6% IN JUNE

NEW YORK, AUGUST 31, 2021: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for June 2021 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to CLICK HEAR

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Home Sales Prices Continue to Retreat, Slightly

Sales prices for single-family, re-sale homes continued falling in August. The median sales price fell 8.6% from July. Nevertheless, it was up 6.7% compared to last year. That’s the fifteenth month in a row the median sales price has been higher than the year before.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 13.1% from July. It was down 0.6% year-over-year. This after being higher than the year before twenty months in a row.

The sales price to list price ratio fell to 109.5% from 109.6%.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County were up for the fourteenth month in a row in August. They gained 4.4% year-over-year. There were 378 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 41.3% compared to last year. As of September 5th, there were 328 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, rose to twenty-six days.

It took fourteen days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos rose 13.9% year-over-year.

Year-over-year, the average sales price rose 7%.

Condo sales were up 44.4% year-over-year. There were 156 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was down 37.2% year-over-year.

As of September 5th, there were 152 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory fell to twenty-nine from thirty-five.

It took an average of twenty-three days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

August 2021 Sales Statistics

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at: https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

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Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to

https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

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Looking to Downsize?

Keep Your Property Tax Base

Under Proposition 60, California homeowners 55 and older get a one-time chance to sell their primary residence and transfer its property-tax assessment to a new one, but the market value of the new home generally must be equal to or less than the market value of the old home.

Prop. 60 was designed to help longtime California homeowners who want to downsize but don’t want to give up the low property-tax assessment they enjoy in their existing home.

Under Proposition 13, homes are reassessed for property-tax purposes when there is a change in ownership or new construction. In between ownership changes, the assessed value can go up by an inflation rate not to exceed 2% a year. (Homeowners can get temporary reductions when property values go down.)

Prop. 60 lets homeowners 55 or older transfer their base-year value from an existing primary residence to a new primary residence, but there are restrictions.

The new home must be in the same county as the old one or, as Proposition 90 added, in one of eleven counties that accept transfers of base-year value from other counties. The eleven counties are: Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Tuolumne and Ventura.

Also, the new home must be purchased or built within two years – before or after – the sale of the original property.

If the new house is purchased before the old house is sold, the market value of the new house on its purchase date cannot exceed 100% of the old home’s market value on the date it is sold.

Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trends Report

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