Market Trends Report

Contraction Reaction (SCC & SMC)

April 29, 2022 — The U.S. economy has certainly had some ups and downs over the last few years, swinging from deep recession to outsized growth to moderate periods. However, the stunning reversal in GDP growth — moving from a too-hot near-7% annual clip in the fourth quarter of 2021 to a decline of 1.4% in the first quarter of 2022 was certainly not something expected by many.

Although the Fed has so far moved the interest rate needle by the slightest amount, everyone is well aware that the financial markets have changed considerably over the last few months. Long-term interest rates and those that govern mortgages have leapt since the calendar changed to 2022, and we are starting to see recurring signs that the first economic component to slow is housing.

Sales of new homes came in at an annualized rate of 763,000 in March, down 8.6% from an upwardly-revised 835K figure from February. Upward revisions have been common in recent months, but even considering them, the trend seen here is one of diminishing sales over the last three months. Prices of new homes continue to increase quickly, even more so than those seen for existing homes, with the median-priced new home sold in March more than 21% more expensive than one sold just a year ago. The $436,700 median cost for a newly-constructed single-family home is also a new nominal record, too. Builders have been busy building and as we noted last week, their level of optimism regarding their prospects remains high, if less so than seen at times last year. Still, the slower pace of sale leaves 6.4 months of supply available, some 407,000 units, the highest in more than 13 years. With persistent challenging conditions, it may be that building will need to slow a bit to keep supply in check with demand.

Higher mortgage rates and higher home costs are dinging the existing home market, too. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for March sported a 1.2% drop, a fifth consecutive decline, with this advance indicator falling to level last seen in March 2020. Pending home sales this March were 8.2% below year-ago levels, and mortgage rates rose considerably in April, so it’s starting to look like there won’t be much of a spring homebuying season this year. High prices, high rates and low inventory are creating less than optimal conditions in which to find and buy and affordable home this year.

This is of course also reflected in requests for mortgage credit. The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that mortgage applications declined another 8.2% in the week ending April 22, dragged downward by a 7.6% decline in purchase-money mortgage requests and another 9% drop in those for refinancing. Purchase apps have been mixed at least, with four increases and four declines in the last eight weeks; refinancing requests have seen only one uptick in that time, and that was eight weeks ago.

Mortgage rates managed to tread water this week, but there’s no real reason to think that this will continue. Stock and bond markets sold off hard to end the trading week, with the Dow Jones dropping over 900 points and the yield on the 10-year Treasury again pressing toward the 3% mark. There little solace to be expected next week, either, when the initial slew of April economic data, including reviews of manufacturing, service business and the employment report (and more) will be joined by a Fed meeting and rate hike, likely balance-sheet announcement and more. With all this as a backdrop, lower mortgage rates just don’t seem likely, and we’re likely to see a bump in the average offered rate for a conforming 30-year fixed-rate mortgage as reported by Freddie Mac next Thursday morning. How much of a bump? Hopefully, less than a tenth of a percentage point.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

For a focused review of current and historical market trends go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports and click “change’’ see below

Real Estate Related Articles

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’
and www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.
For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit https://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Reports 19.2% Annual Home Price Gain To Start 2022

NEW YORK, March 29, 2022: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2022 show that home prices continue to increase across the U.S. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to CLICK HEAR

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San Mateo County (SMC): Sales Prices Set New Highs, Sales Continue to Fall

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes set a new high of $2,400,000. It was up 20.7% compared to last year. That’s the twenty-third month in a row the median sales price has been higher than the year before.

The average sales price rose 17.4% year-over-year. It also set a new record high of $2,878,270.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 116.2% to 114%.

After being higher, year-over-year, fourteen months in a row, sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County fell for the eighth month in a row. They were down 17.4% in April. There were 366 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 5.4% compared to last year. As of May 5th, there were 300 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, stayed at twenty-four days.

It took eleven days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos rose 16.3% year-over-year. It set a new high of $1,113,000.

Year-over-year, the average sales price rose 12.9%.

Condo sales were down 9.4% year-over-year. There were 135 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was down 12.6% year-over-year.

As of May 5th, there were 125 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory rose from twenty-six to twenty-seven.

It took an average of eighteen days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

April 2022 Sales Statistics

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to

https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

Looking to Downsize?

Keep Your Property Tax Base

Under Proposition 60, California homeowners 55 and older get a one-time chance to sell their primary residence and transfer its property-tax assessment to a new one, but the market value of the new home generally must be equal to or less than the market value of the old home.

Prop. 60 was designed to help longtime California homeowners who want to downsize but don’t want to give up the low property-tax assessment they enjoy in their existing home.

Under Proposition 13, homes are reassessed for property-tax purposes when there is a change in ownership or new construction. In between ownership changes, the assessed value can go up by an inflation rate not to exceed 2% a year. (Homeowners can get temporary reductions when property values go down.)

Prop. 60 lets homeowners 55 or older transfer their base-year value from an existing primary residence to a new primary residence, but there are restrictions.

The new home must be in the same county as the old one or, as Proposition 90 added, in one of eleven counties that accept transfers of base-year value from other counties. The eleven counties are: Alameda, El Dorado, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Tuolumne and Ventura.

Also, the new home must be purchased or built within two years – before or after – the sale of the original property.

If the new house is purchased before the old house is sold, the market value of the new house on its purchase date cannot exceed 100% of the old home’s market value on the date it is sold.