Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report:

December 2023

Santa Clara County (SCC): Home Prices and Sales Rise in November

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 8.3% compared to last year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 4.6% year-over-year.

After being lower than the year before for twenty-two months, sales of single-family, re-sale homes were up 3.3%, year-over-year, in November. There were 495 homes sold in Santa Clara County last month. The monthly average since 2000 is 987.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 105.1% to 103.9%.

Pending sales were down 55.8% year-over-year.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down for the eighth month in a row. It fell 37.4% compared to last year. As of December 5th, there were 490 homes for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 2,703.

Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all homes listed for sale at the current rate of sales, fell from 31 days to 29 days. The average since 2003 is 89.

It took nineteen days to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed for sale to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for condos was up 5.1% compared to last November. The average sales price gained 5.8% year-over-year.

Condo sales were down 6.6% year-over-year. There were 199 condos sold in November.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 102.6% to 102.1%.

Condo inventory was down 23.8% compared to last November.

As of December 5th, there were 263 condos for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 757.

Days of inventory fell from forty-five to thirty-eight.

It took an average of twenty-three days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

November 2023 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

 

Want straight answers to your real estate questions?

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You can also perform your own personal search of properties for sale.

Data Supporting Lower Rates (SCC & SMC)

Dec 1, 2023 — Mortgage and other long-term interest rates have found some additional reasons to decline of late, and that’s helped take at least some of the sting out of the summer-into-fall spike. Economic data released over the last four weeks — covering the first month of the fourth quarter and part of the second — have largely had a flat-to-softer tone, and the Treasury’s change in the mix of debt it is pushing into the market has also played a role in helping longer-term rates to fall.

The supportive data continued this week, as a mix of both October and now November data provided no reason for rates to change their recent course. The current economic situation appears to be one of a considerable deceleration from the torrid pace of the third quarter, but of course there’s a lot of data yet to be seen for this quarter before the picture becomes clear.

In a difficult year for housing, sales of new homes have been a relative bright spot, but amid challenging mortgage conditions, that brightness dimmed a little in October. The Census Bureau reported that sales of new homes in October declined by 5.6%, easing to a 679,000 annual rate of sale from a downwardly-revised 719K pace for September. Unlike existing homes, there are plenty of new homes available to buy; at the current rate of sale, it would take 7.8 months to completely deplete supply, and the actual 439,000 units available is the highest figure since January. The supply of homes here isn’t the reason sales are throttled, nor is the cost, as the median price of a brand-new home sold in October was $409,300, a figure not only on par with a existing home ($391,800 in October, per the NAR) but one that is also the lowest since August 2021. In fact, the price of a new home in October 2023 is actually 17.6% below where it was a year ago as builders have looked to price cuts and financing incentives to help move inventory. Certainly, that’s not been the case in the existing housing market, as any prospective home buyer will likely tell you.

Adverse financing conditions, high home prices and little available to buy are a recipe for slower existing home sales. Already at their lowest levels in perhaps 12 years, sales appear set to slow even more as we head into the quietest time of the year for real estate.

The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index declined by another 8.5%, leaving this measure of signed contracts to purchase at its lowest level ever in a series that dates to 2001. Since contract signings lead closings by 1-2 months, the decline here portends a downshift in sales from October’s 3.79 million (annualized) rate to something around a 3.5 million pace for either November or December, adding more drag to the already seasonally-slow period for home sales. While mortgage rates have improved a bit since October with 30-year FRMs declining about a half percentage point, it’s really not enough to improve the outlook for sales all that much, but it may help limit the downside a bit.

Construction spending enjoyed a 0.6% increase in October. Outlays for residential projects led the way, rising by 1.2%, a nice rebound after a 0.2% decline in September, but this was also joined by a modest 0.1% increase in non-residential outlays and a 0.2% increase in spending on public-works projects. Overall spending for construction projects has risen for 10 consecutive months; money form various tranches of government stimulus programs and spending bills is being seen here, as is the effect of inventory limitations in the existing home market. Housing construction may or may not continue apace, but government outlays that are driving non-residential investment likely will for some time yet.

Lower mortgage rates over the last few weeks have helped lift consumer requests for loans, but since rates are still north of 7% even for the best borrowers, there are limits. In the week ending November 24, overall requests for mortgage credit rose by 0.3%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. As might be expected, all the gains came from an increase in purchase-money requests, which expanded by 4.7%, part of a four-week string of increases. Refinancing activity dropped smartly, with application activity here falling by 8.9% compared to a week prior and ending a three week string of increases. Of course, the period was a holiday week and there’s not all that much of a compelling reason to refinance at the moment, but the slightly lower rates in the market this week will likely revive at least a little interest in replacing an existing mortgage.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 

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Silicon Valley escalates the battle over returning to the office

By Catherine Thorbecke

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’ and http://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.

For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit http://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Rebound Continued in May

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for May 2023 show all 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases for the third straight month. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to CLICK HERE

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Home Prices Mixed, Sales Up

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County rose 8.2% in November, year-over-year. There were 238 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 1.7% compared to last year.

The average sales price fell 7.1% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio fell from 102.8% to 102.6%.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 23.6% compared to last year. As of December 5th, there were 321 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, fell from fifty-four to thirty-nine days.

It took twenty-five days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos rose 9.8% year-over-year.

Year-over-year, the average sales price rose 16.2%.

Condo sales were down 27.3% year-over-year. There were 56 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was down 7% year-over-year.

As of December 5th, there were 147 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory fell from seventy-eight to seventy-six.

It took an average of forty-two days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

November 2023 Sales Statistics (SMC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at: http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

 

 

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 

 

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