Santa Clara County (SCC): C.A.R.’s 2016 California Housing Market Forecast
California home sales to increase slightly, while prices post slowest gain in five years.
California’s housing market will continue to improve into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the market and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS'(C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing Market Forecast”.
The C.A.R. forecast sees an increase in existing home sales of 6.3 percent next year to reach 433,000 units, up from the projected 2015 sales figure of 407,500 homes sold. Sales in 2015 also will be up 6.3 percent from the 383,300 existing, single-family homes sold in 2014.
“Solid job growth and favorable interest rates will drive a strong demand for housing next year,” said C.A.R. President Chris Kutzkey. “However, in regions where inventory is tight, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, sales growth could be limited by stiff market competition and diminishing housing affordability. On the other hand, demand in less expensive areas such as Solano County, the Central Valley, and Riverside/San Bernardino areas will remain strong thanks to solid job growth in warehousing, transportation, logistics, and manufacturing in these areas.”
C.A.R.’s forecast projects growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.7 percent in 2016, after a projected gain of 2.4 percent in 2015. With nonfarm job growth of 2.3 percent in California, the state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 5.5 percent in 2016 from 6.3 percent in 2015 and 7.5 percent in 2014.
The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will rise only slightly to 4.5 percent but will still remain at historically low levels.
The California median home price is forecast to increase 3.2 percent to $491,300 in 2016, following a projected 6.5 percent increase in 2015 to $476,300. This is the slowest rate of price appreciation in five years.
“The foundation for California’s housing market remains strong, with moderating home prices, signs of credit easing, and the state continuing to lead the nation in economic and job growth,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “However, the global economic slowdown, financial market volatility, and the anticipation of higher interest rates are some of the challenges that may have an adverse impact on the market’s momentum next year. Additionally, as we see more sales shift to inland regions of the state, the change in mix of sales will keep increases in the statewide median price tempered.”
October Stats (SCC)
Single-Family Homes
Year-Over-Year
- Median home prices increased by 10.5% year-over-year to $960,000 from $869,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 8.4% year-over-year to $1,241,810 from $1,145,490.
- Home sales fell by 11.4% year-over-year to 846 from 955.
- Total inventory* rose 8.1% year-over-year to 1,941 from 1,795.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.0% year-over-year to 103.0% from 103.0%.
- The average days on market fell by 6.2% year-over-year to 26 from 28.
Month-Over-Month
- Median home prices were flat at $960,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 0.7% to $1,241,810 from $1,233,240.
- Home sales down by 5.1% to 846 from 891.
- Total inventory* dropped 9.9% to 1,941 from 2,155.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.7% to 103.0% from 103.8%.
- The average days on market increased by 12.5% to 26 from 23.
Condominiums
Year-Over-Year
- Median condo prices increased by 15.5% year-over-year to $635,000 from $550,000.
- The average condo sales price rose by 13.5% year-over-year to $686,114 from $604,349.
- Condo sales fell by 15.9% year-over-year to 349 from 415.
- Total inventory* fell 13.3% year-over-year to 540 from 623.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 2.1% year-over-year to 104.2% from 102.1%.
- The average days on market fell by 21.2% year-over-year to 20 from 26.
Month-Over-Month
- Median condo prices improved by 4.1% to $635,000 from $610,000.
- The average condo sales price rose by 5.3% to $686,114 from $651,516.
- Condo sales down by 0.9% to 349 from 352.
- Total inventory* dropped 13% to 540 from 621.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.4% to 104.2% from 104.6%.
- The average days on market increased by 7.9% to 20 from 19.
Call or email me if you have any questions.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.
Investors Corner
Widespread Gains in Home Prices for August
According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
New York, October 27, 2015 –S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for August 2015 show that home prices continued their rise across the country over the last 12 months. More than 27 years of history for these data series can be accessed in full by…
Read more at https://goo.gl/ePE0ZM
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San Mateo County (SMC): C.A.R.’s 2016 California Housing Market Forecast
California home sales to increase slightly, while prices post slowest gain in five years.
California’s housing market will continue to improve into 2016, but a shortage of homes on the market and a crimp in housing affordability also will persist, according to the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS'(C.A.R.) “2016 California Housing Market Forecast”.
The C.A.R. forecast sees an increase in existing home sales of 6.3 percent next year to reach 433,000 units, up from the projected 2015 sales figure of 407,500 homes sold. Sales in 2015 also will be up 6.3 percent from the 383,300 existing, single-family homes sold in 2014.
“Solid job growth and favorable interest rates will drive a strong demand for housing next year,” said C.A.R. President Chris Kutzkey. “However, in regions where inventory is tight, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, sales growth could be limited by stiff market competition and diminishing housing affordability. On the other hand, demand in less expensive areas such as Solano County, the Central Valley, and Riverside/San Bernardino areas will remain strong thanks to solid job growth in warehousing, transportation, logistics, and manufacturing in these areas.”
C.A.R.’s forecast projects growth in the U.S. Gross Domestic Product of 2.7 percent in 2016, after a projected gain of 2.4 percent in 2015. With nonfarm job growth of 2.3 percent in California, the state’s unemployment rate should decrease to 5.5 percent in 2016 from 6.3 percent in 2015 and 7.5 percent in 2014.
The average for 30-year, fixed mortgage interest rates will rise only slightly to 4.5 percent but will still remain at historically low levels.
The California median home price is forecast to increase 3.2 percent to $491,300 in 2016, following a projected 6.5 percent increase in 2015 to $476,300. This is the slowest rate of price appreciation in five years.
“The foundation for California’s housing market remains strong, with moderating home prices, signs of credit easing, and the state continuing to lead the nation in economic and job growth,” said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. “However, the global economic slowdown, financial market volatility, and the anticipation of higher interest rates are some of the challenges that may have an adverse impact on the market’s momentum next year. Additionally, as we see more sales shift to inland regions of the state, the change in mix of sales will keep increases in the statewide median price tempered.”
October Stats (SMC)
Single-Family Homes
Year-Over-Year
- Median home prices increased by 11.2% year-over-year to $1,180,000 from $1,061,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 15.8% year-over-year to $1,539,010 from $1,329,230.
- Home sales fell by 23.5% year-over-year to 345 from 451.
- Total inventory* rose 7.1% year-over-year to 788 from 736.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 1.4% year-over-year to 106.6% from 105.1%.
- The average days on market fell by 18.5% year-over-year to 22 from 26.
Compared To Last Month
- Median home prices increased by 11.2% year-over-year to $1,180,000 from $1,061,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 15.8% year-over-year to $1,539,010 from $1,329,230.
- Home sales fell by 23.5% year-over-year to 345 from 451.
- Total inventory* rose 7.1% year-over-year to 788 from 736.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 1.4% year-over-year to 106.6% from 105.1%.
- The average days on market fell by 18.5% year-over-year to 22 from 26
Condominiums
Year-Over-Year
- Median condo prices increased by 14.9% year-over-year to $715,000 from $622,500.
- The average condo sales price rose by 18.4% year-over-year to $809,112 from $683,356.
- Condo sales fell by 9.8% year-over-year to 119 from 132.
- Total inventory* fell 0.4% year-over-year to 224 from 225.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 3.2% year-over-year to 107.1% from 103.8%.
- The average days on market fell by 13.2% year-over-year to 20 from 23.
Month-Over-Month
- Median condo prices increased by 14.9% year-over-year to $715,000 from $622,500.
- The average condo sales price rose by 18.4% year-over-year to $809,112 from $683,356.
- Condo sales fell by 9.8% year-over-year to 119 from 132.
- Total inventory* fell 0.4% year-over-year to 224 from 225.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 3.2% year-over-year to 107.1% from 103.8%.
- The average days on market fell by 13.2% year-over-year to 20 from 23
Call or email me if you have any questions.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.
