Santa Clara County (SCC): Aging in Place (SCC)
In a 2005 survey by AARP, 89 percent of people age 50 and older said they would prefer to remain in their home indefinitely as they age.
We can definitely understand the desire to stay around family and friends and to continue to live in a community one has become accustomed to.
Another reason for owners not selling is the capital gains tax. One of my fellow agents just sold a home for over $1,000,000 that the owners had bought for $45,000. I know, nice gain! But after the $500,000 exclusion, if you file a joint return with your spouse, they have to pay the tax on the rest.
Unfortunately for the younger generation, the downside is there are fewer homes for sale.
Which is what we have been seeing for the past few years. Inventory has been dropping to unprecedented levels.
Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down to 492 units listed in the MLS as of January 5th.
The average number of homes listed per month from 2000 through 2013 was 5,134.
As we mentioned last month, the county needs to allow some high-rise buildings to be built that would alleviate the pressure.
The local association of REALTORS needs to take an active stance on this issue.
December Market Statistics
Year-Over-Year
- Median home prices increased by 11.4% year-over-year to $849,975 from $763,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 12.2% year-over-year to $1,088,090 from $969,694.
- Home sales fell by 16.6% year-over-year to 676 from 811.
- Total inventory* fell 36.4% year-over-year to 1,011 from 1,589.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio fell by 0.1% year-over-year to 102.3% from 102.4%.
- The average days on market fell by 1.4% year-over-year to 33 from 34.
Compared To Last Month
- Median home prices slipped by 0.3% to $849,975 from $852,500.
- The average home sales price fell by 1.9% to $1,088,090 from $1,109,020.
- Home sales down by 4% to 676 from 704.
- Total inventory* dropped 26.8% to 1,011 from 1,381.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio dropped by 0.5% to 102.3% from 102.8%.
- The average days on market increased by 10.5% to 33 from 30.
* Total inventory is active listings plus contingent or pending listings. Active listings do not include contingent listings.
Foreclosure Statistics (SCC)
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in Santa Clara County rose 6.7% in November from October. They were up 42.6% year-over-year.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner’s final notice before sale, were down 12.5% compared to October, and they were down 29% year-over-year.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons that include a successful loan modification or short sale, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank’s opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank.
Properties going back to the bank fell 4.8% in November from October. Year-over-year, they were down 25.9%. Twenty properties went back to banks.
The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed jumped 31.5% from October, and they were up 26.7% year-over-year.
The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined by 8.9% year-over-year.
The total number of properties owned by banks was down 10.4% year-over-year to about 542.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.
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Mortgage Rate Outlook
2015 Begins As 2014 Ended: Mostly Trendless
Jan 5, 2015 –Mortgage rates spent a third week in a state of near statis as the market-quieting effect of the holidays now comes to a close. A second consecutive week interrupted by a holiday coupled with a very light calendar of data produced just a minimal move for rates, but now in the new year, we are quickly approaching a time that has been known to kick rates more squarely in one direction or the other.
Given the fairly solid state of the economy, that should mean a slight firming trend may be in the offing, but there doesn’t appear to be much reason to be concerned about any kind of significant leap anytime soon. For new, we’ll just enjoy the sideways drift.
HSH.com’s broad-market mortgage tracker — our weekly Fixed-Rate Mortgage Indicator (FRMI)– found that the overall average rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages increased by a single basis point this week (0.01%) to rise to 3.99 percent. The FRMI’s 15-year companion managed a two basis point increase, presenting homeowners looking to refinance with an attractive average of 3.35 percent. Fully-insured FHA-backed 30-year FRMs remain well below even its conforming counterpart, and held steady for a second consective week at an average rate of 3.74 percent. The overall 5/1 Hybrid ARM has been a touch more erratic of late; this week the average rose by another two basis points, moving up to 3.15 percent.
It goes without saying that mortgage rates confounded our (and most other) forecasts in 2014, moving nearly in an opposite direction of our expectation. The decline in fixed rate mortgages was appreciable, dramatic even, and provided an unexpected lift to refinancing and were also a useful offset to still-rising home prices, helping to keep affordability in check. We ventured a new 2015 outlook for rates a couple of weeks ago (a link is below) and it may be that fixed rates don’t make it much beyond 2014’s high marks. Time will tell.
Construction spending backed off a bit in November, easing by 0.3 percent. Much of the drag came from public works spending, which fell by 1.7 percent, and some additional downward pull came from spending on commercial projects. Residential spending pushed higher by 0.9 percent for a second consecutive month, and spending on single- and multifamily homes remains well above year-ago levels, as well.
Investors Corner
S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index Pace Eases
While Eight Cities Show Faster Gains
New York, December 30, 2014– S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the
S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today
for October 2014, shows that the pace of home prices across the country continues to decelerate
although eight cities did see prices rise faster.
Read more at http://goo.gl/0xeS6M
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San Mateo County (SMC): Aging in Place
In a 2005 survey by AARP, 89 percent of people age 50 and older said they would prefer to remain in their home indefinitely as they age.
We can definitely understand the desire to stay around family and friends and to continue to live in a community one has become accustomed to.
Another reason for owners not selling is the capital gains tax. One of my fellow agents just sold a home for over $1,000,000 that the owners had bought for $45,000. I know, nice gain! But after the $500,000 exclusion, if you file a joint return with your spouse, they have to pay the tax on the rest.
Unfortunately for the younger generation, the downside is there are fewer homes for sale.
Which is what we have been seeing for the past few years. Inventory has been dropping to unprecedented levels.
Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down to 175 units listed in the MLS as of January 5th.
The average number of homes listed per month from 2000 through 2013 was 1,287.
As we mentioned last month, the county needs to allow some high-rise buildings to be built that would alleviate the pressure.
The local association of REALTORS needs to take an active stance on this issue.
December Market Statistics
Year-Over-Year
- Median home prices fell by 3% year-over-year to $960,000 from $990,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 2.4% year-over-year to $1,429,870 from $1,395,830.
- Home sales fell by 16.6% year-over-year to 286 from 343.
- Total inventory* fell 51.2% year-over-year to 344 from 705.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio rose by 2.1% year-over-year to 104.8% from 102.6%.
- The average days on market fell by 22.5% year-over-year to 28 from 37.
Compared To Last Month
- Median home prices slipped by 11.5% to $960,000 from $1,085,000.
- The average home sales price rose by 1.0% to $1,429,870 from $1,415,500.
- Home sales down by 15.1% to 286 from 337.
- Total inventory* dropped 36.2% to 344 from 539.
- Sales price vs. list price ratio increased by 0.2% to 104.8% from 104.5%.
- The average days on market dropped by 9.9% to 28 from 32.
* Total inventory is active listings plus contingent or pending listings. Active listings do not include contingent listings.
Foreclosure statistics (SMC)
Notices of default, the first step in the foreclosure process, in San Mateo County fell 16.7% in November from October. Year-over-year, notices were off 49.4%.
Notices of sale, which set the date and time of an auction, and serve as the homeowner’s final notice before sale, dropped 19.2% from October, and they were down 51.3% year-over-year.
After the filing of a Notice of Trustee Sale, there are only three possible outcomes. First, the sale can be cancelled for reasons including: successful short sale or loan modification, a filing error, or a legal requirement to re-file the notice after extended postponements.
Alternatively, if the property is taken to sale, the bank will place the opening bid. If a third party, typically an investor, bids more than the bank’s opening bid, the property will be sold to the third party; if not, it will go back to the bank.
In November, cancellations dropped 46.8% from October, and they were down 55.4% year-over-year.
Properties going back to the bank rose 50% in November from October. Year-over-year, properties going back to the bank were up 20%. Six properties went back to the banks.
The total number of properties that have had a notice of default filed jumped 64.5% from October, but they were down 10.8% compared to November 2013.
The total number of properties scheduled for sale declined 30.5% year-over-year.
The total number of properties owned by banks was down 12.4% year-over-year. The banks now own approximately 530 properties in the county.
For further details and a city-by-city breakdown of foreclosure statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.
