Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report:

December 2018

Santa Clara County (SCC): Market Continues to Soften

The real estate market in Silicon Valley continues to soften. The sales price to list price ratio is at its lowest level since March 2012. While still over 100%, 100.4%, the trend will have it below that mark soon.

Prices of single-family, re-sale homes fell year-over-year. This the first time the median price has been lower than the year before since January 2012. Year-over-year, the median price was down 3%. The average price was down 4.4%.

Home sales were down 9.2%. Year-to-date, home sales are down 9.2%.

Inventory continues to expand. It has been higher than the year before six months in a row. In November it was more than double last year: 138.6%.

As of December 5th, there were 1,100 homes for sale in Santa Clara County.

Nevertheless, Days of Inventory shed nine days to forty-four days in November.  Since January 2000, Santa Clara County has averaged ninety-four days of inventory.

It is taking thirty days to sell a home. That’s the longest since January 2017.

The median price for re-sale condos was up 9.8% year-over-year. The average price was up 6.5%.

The sales price to list price ratio was 101.2%. That’s the lowest it has been since April 2012.

Condo sales were down 8.4% in November. Year-to-date, condo sales are down 12.8%.

Inventory continues to expand. It has been higher than the year before six months in a row. In November it was up 419.8% over last year.

As of December 5th, there were 447 condos for sale in Santa Clara County.

Days of inventory fell eleven days to forty-six.

It is taking twenty-eight days to sell a condo.

November 2018 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at

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Housing Quiet (SCC & SMC)

November 30, 2018 — It’s no secret that home sales have lacked traction for a good number of months now. Even with a modest 1.4% rise in existing home sales in October, the truth is that they still remain more than 5% below the same period last year. This week, the National Association of Realtors noted that their Pending Home Sales Index for October fell by 2.6%, making it now 10 consecutive months where pending sales were lower when compared to year-ago readings. The PSHI is based on signed contract to buy; home purchase transaction commonly take 45-60 days to complete, and so are a harbinger for at least a part the expected trend for existing home sales for November and December. Those sales figures won’t come for about 4 and 8 weeks, respectively.

Although it remains at a robust level, we learned last week that enthusiasm among homebuilders had dropped sharply in November amid a lackluster and challenging construction climate. This week we learned the reason for the souring demeanor: Fewer folks are buying the homes they are building.

Sales of new homes slumped by 8.9% in October, continuing a downtrend that began after an expansion peak for sales of 712,000 (annualized) units last November. A year on, and the present rate of sale has slid all the way to 544,000 annual units, some 12% below the same period last year. There was a bit of a bright spot in an upward revision for September sales (from 552K to 597K) but very little to be excited about in the current climate. With the slump in sales, supplies of unsold homes swelled to 7.4 months, a level rather above optimal stockpiles of perhaps 6 months, and one that will likely put a damper on new construction trends for a while. The 336,000 built-and-ready to sell units available is the highest number of the economic expansion to date.

Moving the needle higher for new home sales may be difficult, at least for a time. Of late, somewhat more existing home inventory has become available and so competes against more expensive new stock; as well, it is likely difficult to build homes in the markets that most need additional new inventory as tracts of open land are scarce. Other headwinds such as firming mortgage rates don’t help either, and with the home buying season giving way to the holiday season, it may be spring before we see much by way of improvement.

With Black Friday behind us and the normally-quiet-for-housing holiday season kicking in, it doesn’t seem likely that we’ll see home sales get much of a lift anytime soon. Mortgage rates have backed off from recent peak levels by about an eighth of a percentage point which may help a bit, and with the influential 10-year Treasury holding a yield of just about 3% late Friday and other indicators also softening, we think there’s a good chance of a 3-4 basis point decline in the average 30-year FRM reported by Freddie Mac come next Thursday, even with the first-week-of-the-month slew of top-tier economic data hitting the markets.

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For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to

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Real estate related Articles

The Wall Street Journal
Dec. 15, 2018
Where You Should Move to Make the Most Money: America’s Superstar CitiesBy Christopher Mims
The Mercury News
Dec. 12, 2018

Employer taxes, rent caps, and more in big, bold Bay Area housing plan

By Erin Baldassri

The Wall Street Journal
Nov. 26, 2018
The U.S. Housing Boom Is Coming to an End, Starting in Dallas
By Laura Kusisto
Nov. 26, 2018
Real estate & economics forecast: a recession is on the horizon
By Laura Counts

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units
on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.

In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’


Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.

For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit

For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corne


NEW YORK, NOVEMBER 27, 2018 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for September 2018 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. slowed for the second month in a row. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available and can be accessed in full by going to:

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Market Continues to Soften

The real estate market in San Mateo County continues to soften. The sales price to list price ratio is at its lowest level since January 2017. While still over 100%, 103.4%, the trend will have it below that mark soon.

The median price for single-family, re-sale homes fell 7.6% from October. The average price for homes fell 1.2%.

Year-over-year, the median price was flat and the average price was up 6.1%.

Home sales were down 12.4% year-over-year. Year-to-date, sales are off 4.9%.

Days of Inventory dropped one day to forty-two days in November. Since January 2000, San Mateo County has averaged eighty-one days of inventory.

The number of homes for sale was up 74.5% year-over-year. That’s the sixth month in a row inventory has been higher.

As of December 5th, there were 466 homes for sale in San Mateo County.

It is taking twenty-nine days to sell a home.

Condo prices were down last month with the median price off 3.0% and the average price falling 2.6% over last year.

Sales were down 23.0%. This is the seventh consecutive month condo sales have been lower than the year before.

Inventory was up for the fourth month in a row, jumping 144.4%. There are now 110 condos on the market.

There are thirty-seven days of inventory.

Condos are staying on the market only twenty-one days. That means from the time the condo is listed to when it goes into contract.

November 2018 Sales Statistics (SMC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at:

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to


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