Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report:

Santa Clara County (SCC): Market Begins to Firm

The real estate market in Silicon Valley is beginning to heat up for three reasons. First, spring is when the market typically becomes more active. Two, mortgage rates are at 15-month lows. Third, IPOs have started creating instant millionaires.

We expect 2019 to be a very strong year for the real estate market.

Home prices set record highs in March 2018, then started a slow decline. Although prices for single-family, re-sale homes were lower than the year before in March, they were up month-over-month.

The sales price to list price ratio, which had a peak last spring of 112.4%, had dropped ten months in a row before bottoming out at 99.5% in January. Last month it was up to 101.3%.

Home sales were down, year-over-year, for the eleventh month in a row. There were 709 homes sold in Santa Clara County last month. The average since 2000 is 987.

Inventory continues to expand. It has been higher than the year before ten months in a row. Last month, it was up 101.9% over last year.

Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all homes listed for sale at the current rate of sales, was down to 44 days. The average since 2003 is 89.

As of April 5th, there were 1,042 homes for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 2,778.

It is taking twenty-seven days to sell a home. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

Prices for re-sale condos were up last month from the month before but were down year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio was 100.6%.

Condo sales were down 20.4% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to expand. It has been higher than the year before ten months in a row.

As of April 5th, there were 477 condos for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 757.

Days of inventory dropped to fifty-seven.

It took thirty days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

March 2019 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

Mortgage Rates Exit March Like A Lamb (SCC & SMC)

March 29, 2019 — “In like a lion, out like a lamb” is an old saying about the weather in March. Given that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are ending the month more than a third of a percentage point below where they began (not to mention they are now at 15-month lows), this old aphorism might be applied to mortgage rates this month, too.

Relentless pessimism in financial markets about prospects for growth, benign and perhaps dwindling inflation and accommodating central banks around the globe have all contributed their part to the decline in longer term interest rates. In turn, long-term fixed mortgage rates fell nearly a quarter-percent in just the past week.

Six months ago, the Fed was raising interest rates and trimming its balance sheet and projecting more of the same, and the markets were generally sanguine; three months ago the Fed was raising rates and trimming its balance sheet projecting more of the same, but markets turned decidedly unhappy. In the most recent three months, we’ve come to see the economy slow and be interrupted by a partial government shutdown, fomenting a 180-degree turn by the Fed, who now looks to leave rates alone for some time and will end balance-sheet reductions before long.

After an unexpected flare higher in January, housing starts fell back to trend in February, posting an 8.7% month-to-month decline and landing at 1.162 million (annualized) units under construction. Starts of single-family homes slumped from 907K annualized to just 805K, but this is roughly on par with figures from November and December. Conversely, multifamily construction rebounded, with this smaller market segment putting in a 17.8% increase to 357,000 units started. Permits for future building eased by 1.6%, a second small decline, landing a 1.296 million (annual) units planned. All in all, not a great report, but of course reflective of the difficult period from which we seem to be emerging… and of course, winter months aren’t often the best for construction.

That said, some optimism about housing should have come from the report on sales of new homes for February. A 4.9% increase in sales was tallied for the month, and as these sales are logged when a contract is signed, it is a figure reflective of recent demand. The increase pushed the annualized rate of sale back up to 667,000 homes sold, the highest such figure since March 2018, and a second consecutive month of rising sales. Relative to the slower rate of construction above, the increase in sales depleted inventories of unsold homes closer to normal, trimming months of stock from 6.5 in January to 6.1 in February, and importantly, the number of actual units available (340,000) has now declined for the last two months as well. With mortgage rates dropping, odds favor that we’ll see firmer sales as the traditional housing season takes off, and that in turn we’ll see building activity pick back up again.

Mortgage rates are down and consumers are noticing. Even without this week’s drop in rates, applications for both purchase and refinancing are running at the best levels in a year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, and that doesn’t even yet reflect the considerable decline in rates from this week.

Of course, by the time the news hits the headlines and consumers digest it and react, markets are already changing. Although not a huge rebound, the underlying interest rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages have firmed up in the last couple of days. As such, we expect that the big decline in rates reported this week — the largest one-week drop in 10 years’ time — will be partially eradicated with a small rise in rates next week. At the moment, we’re of the mind that the increase will be 5-7 basis points, but with a slew of new data on tap to drive the markets in the next four days, there’s a chance for a bit more or less.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 Real estate related Articles

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.

In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’

and http://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.

For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit http://www.smcare.org/default.asp

For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corne

HOME PRICE GAINS

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX SHOWS ANNUAL GAINS LOWEST SINCE 2015

Mortgage Rates Exit March Like A Lamb (SCC & SMC)

March 29, 2019 — “In like a lion, out like a lamb” is an old saying about the weather in March. Given that 30-year fixed mortgage rates are ending the month more than a third of a percentage point below where they began (not to mention they are now at 15-month lows), this old aphorism might be applied to mortgage rates this month, too.

Relentless pessimism in financial markets about prospects for growth, benign and perhaps dwindling inflation and accommodating central banks around the globe have all contributed their part to the decline in longer term interest rates. In turn, long-term fixed mortgage rates fell nearly a quarter-percent in just the past week.

Six months ago, the Fed was raising interest rates and trimming its balance sheet and projecting more of the same, and the markets were generally sanguine; three months ago the Fed was raising rates and trimming its balance sheet projecting more of the same, but markets turned decidedly unhappy. In the most recent three months, we’ve come to see the economy slow and be interrupted by a partial government shutdown, fomenting a 180-degree turn by the Fed, who now looks to leave rates alone for some time and will end balance-sheet reductions before long.

After an unexpected flare higher in January, housing starts fell back to trend in February, posting an 8.7% month-to-month decline and landing at 1.162 million (annualized) units under construction. Starts of single-family homes slumped from 907K annualized to just 805K, but this is roughly on par with figures from November and December. Conversely, multifamily construction rebounded, with this smaller market segment putting in a 17.8% increase to 357,000 units started. Permits for future building eased by 1.6%, a second small decline, landing a 1.296 million (annual) units planned. All in all, not a great report, but of course reflective of the difficult period from which we seem to be emerging… and of course, winter months aren’t often the best for construction.

That said, some optimism about housing should have come from the report on sales of new homes for February. A 4.9% increase in sales was tallied for the month, and as these sales are logged when a contract is signed, it is a figure reflective of recent demand. The increase pushed the annualized rate of

sale back up to 667,000 homes sold, the highest such figure since March 2018, and a second consecutive month of rising sales. Relative to the slower rate of construction above, the increase in sales depleted inventories of unsold homes closer to normal, trimming months of stock from 6.5 in January to 6.1 in February, and importantly, the number of actual units available (340,000) has now declined for the last two months as well. With mortgage rates dropping, odds favor that we’ll see firmer sales as the traditional housing season takes off, and that in turn we’ll see building activity pick back up again.

Mortgage rates are down and consumers are noticing. Even without this week’s drop in rates, applications for both purchase and refinancing are running at the best levels in a year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association of America, and that doesn’t even yet reflect the considerable decline in rates from this week.

Of course, by the time the news hits the headlines and consumers digest it and react, markets are already changing. Although not a huge rebound, the underlying interest rates that influence fixed-rate mortgages have firmed up in the last couple of days. As such, we expect that the big decline in rates reported this week — the largest one-week drop in 10 years’ time — will be partially eradicated with a small rise in rates next week. At the moment, we’re of the mind that the increase will be 5-7 basis points, but with a slew of new data on tap to drive the markets in the next four days, there’s a chance for a bit more or less.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

Do you want to be notifiedof investment opportunities across the country? send me a note with subject “investment’s opportunities”

Do you want to be notified
of investment opportunities across the country?send me a note with subject “investment’s opportunities“

For a focused review of current and historical market trends go to https://avi.rereport.com/market_reports and click “change’’ see below

Real estate related Articles

The Mercury News April 7, 2019	LIVINGIN THE BAY AREA WANT OUT? YOU’RE NOT ALONE
March 31, 2019	Rent increases outpace tech salaries
The Mercury News February 28, 2019	Bay Area home sales slow but prices shift back into high gearBy Louis  Hansen
Sources Inside February  2019	A collections of articles about “Zestimate” that every seller and buyer should know

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’
and https://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.
For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit https://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CORELOGIC CASE-SHILLER INDEX SHOWS ANNUAL GAINS LOWEST SINCE 2015

NEW YORK, MARCH 26, 2019 – S&P Dow Jones Indices today released the latest results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices. Data released today for January 2019 shows that the rate of home price increases across the U.S. has continued to slow. More than 27 years of history for these data series is available, and can be accessed in full by going to https://bit.ly/2uSwBOc

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Market Begins to Firm

The real estate market in Silicon Valley is beginning to heat up for three reasons. First, spring is when the market typically becomes more active. Two, mortgage rates are at 15-month lows. Third, IPOs have started creating instant millionaires.

We expect 2019 to be a very strong year for the real estate market.

Home prices set record highs last spring, then started a slow decline. Prices for single-family, re-sale homes were higher than the year before in March. They were also up month-over-month.

The sales price to list price ratio, which had a peak last spring of 113.3%, had dropped to a low of 102.4% in January. Last month it was up to 103.4%.

Home sales were down, year-over-year, for the fifth month in a row. There were 281 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2003 is 398.

Inventory continues to expand. It has been higher than the year before ten months in a row. Last month, it was up 51.9% over last year.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, was down to 42 days.

As of April 5th, there were 398 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 1,287.

It is taking twenty-eight days to sell a home. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

Prices for re-sale condos were up last month from the month before but they were down year-over-year.

Condo sales dropped 22.9% year-over-year.

Inventory continues to expand. It has been higher than the year before eight months in a row.

As of April 5th, there were 107 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory dropped to thirty-five.

It is taking thirty days to sell a condo.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

March 2019 Sales Statistics (SMC)

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.