Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report:

Santa Clara County (SCC): Home Prices Mixed, Sales Down in August

August 2026 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

Saying Little, Speaking Volumes (SCC & SMC)
August 28, 2026 — Even after 100 days in office, little has been revealed about how Fed Chair Kevin Warsh feels about the stance of monetary policy and the economic conditions he inherited. We have come to learn that he isn’t a proponent of providing “forward guidance”, where the Fed reveals its hand regarding near-term policy expectations. However, we haven’t learned much about his so-called “reaction function” or expected policy response when presented with a given set of economic conditions.
As far as forward guidance goes, Mr. Warsh said “Forward guidance […] was adopted by my colleagues and me during the Global Financial Crisis. It was essential at the time […] but, as with other legacies of crises past, I believe that the practice has overstayed its welcome. In normal times, the role of forward guidance should be limited and circumscribed.” Later, he added “I’m not alone in noticing that forward guidance in 2021, to cite one example, might well have slowed the policy response to high inflation.”
Mr. Warsh apparently believes in providing forward guidance when warranted, but not as a regular or routine communication tool. In his speech, he expressed concerns that setting market expectations can lead to policy errors, as they recently may have.
The National Activity Index from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago suggests that the economy ran at a sub-optimal level in July. Using an equilibrium rate of zero, the NAI seeks to show if the economy is growing above or below its “potential”, or ability to grow without throwing off imbalances like inflation. While “potential” is a moving target, it’s reckoned to be a GDP rate of perhaps as high as 2.4% but possibly as low as 1.8%. The NAI’s -0.08 mark for July says growth was slightly below potential, and if potential is currently closer to the high end of the range, perhaps the FRB/NY’s Nowcast is close to the mark on growth at present.
Personal incomes rose by 0.4% in July. Income growth was lifted by a 0.3% increase in wages, but also bolstered by a 0.5% rise in proprietor incomes, a gain of 0.3% in rental property receipts, a half-point gain in investment returns and another sizable (+0.8%) increase in government transfer payments for medicare, medicaid social security and such. While incomes were up for the month, spending was not, as real personal consumption expenditures were unchanged. Less outgo than income meant more available for the piggy bank, and the national rate of savings improved by 0.4% to an improved (though still weak) 3% rate.
As might be expected, sales of new homes were soggy in July. The Census Bureau reported that sales of newly-constructed residences managed just a 607,000 annual rate of sale. This was a 10.5% deterioration from an upwardly-revised June figure, where 50,000 units were added to the initial estimate, lifting the total for June to 678,000. Supplies of new homes for sale remain more than ample; soft sales saw the inventory-to-sales ratio re-balloon to 9.6 months of supply at the present rate of sale; optimal supply is considered to be perhaps six months. If there’s any positive in the report, it may be that new homes sold were less expensive; at $393,800, it is the lowest cost for a new home in five years, so there may be relative bargains available.
Mortgage rates hovering around one-year highs? Check. Applications for mortgage credit posting declines? Also check. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, requests for mortgages declined by 1% in the week ending August 21. Applications for funds to purchase homes declined by 0.3%; those for loans to refinance existing mortgages dropped off by a full 2%. Mortgage rate conditions simply aren’t supportive of any increase in activity at the moment, and this may be the case for a time yet.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

Real estate related Articles

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.

In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’ and http://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.

For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit http://www.smcare.org/default.asp

For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

NEW YORK, AUGUST 25, 2026: S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the June 2026 results for the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Indices.

• The S&P Cotality Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index posted a 1.5% annual gain for June 2026, up from a 1.2% rise in the previous month.
• For the 13th consecutive month, U.S. home values fell in real terms, as June 3.5% inflation ran roughly 2 percentage points above the 1.5% home price gain.
• A nearly nine percentage point gap separated June market (Chicago +6.9% YoY) and its weakest (Seattle -2.0% YoY), underscoring a stark regional divergence in home price trends.
• For more info CLICK HERE

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Home Prices Up, Sales Down in August

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County fell 1.5% in August, year-over-year. There were 261 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was $2,200,000. It was up 12.8% compared to last year.

The average sales price rose 27.3% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 106.3% to 106.7%.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 7.6% compared to last year. As of September 5th, there were 326 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, rose six days to thirty-seven days.

It took twenty-four days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos was up 1.6% year-over-year.

Year-over-year, the average sales price was up 2.4%.

Condo sales were up 11.1% year-over-year. There were 90 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was down 23.5% year-over-year.

As of September 5th, there were 163 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory fell from sixty to fifty-four.

It took an average of forty-two days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

Also, if you would like to know what’s going on in your neighborhood,  go to my on-line report and create a Recent Sales & Listings report.

August 2026 Sales Statistics (SMC)

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.