Silicon Valley Real Estate Market Trend Report:

April 2024

Santa Clara County (SCC): Home Sales Prices Up, Sales Down in March

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 13% compared to last year.

The average sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 13.4% year-over-year.

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes were down 1%, year-over-year, in March. There were 587 homes sold in Santa Clara County last month. The monthly average since 2000 is 987.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 107.4% to 109.2%.

Pending sales were down 42.2% year-over-year.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down for the twelfth month in a row. It fell 28.3% compared to last year. As of April 5th, there were 440 homes for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 2,703.

Days of Inventory, or how long it would take to sell all homes listed for sale at the current rate of sales, fell from 29 days to 22 days. The average since 2003 is 89.

It took sixteen days to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed for sale to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for condos was up 3.2% compared to last March. The average sales price gained 5.8% year-over-year.

Condo sales were flat. There were 245 condos sold in February.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 103.9% to 106.1%.

Condo inventory was flat compared to last March.

As of April 5th, there were 244 condos for sale in Santa Clara County. The average since January 2000 is 757.

Days of inventory rose from twenty-nine to thirty.

It took an average of nineteen days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

March 2024 Sales Statistics (SCC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

More information is available in our on-line report at http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

 

 

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Waiting For Change (SCC & SMC)

Mar. 29, 2024 — The end of the first quarter of 2024 has come, and it is expected to be near the end of the second quarter before the first change in the federal funds rate occurs. Of late, investors seem to have somewhat less conviction than they had that lower rates will come in about three months’ time; futures markets investors presently reckon just a 60% chance that the initial cut in rates will come in June.

At least for new home sales, the early spring housing season has started on a flat foot, or at least a little changed one. To be fair, February’s really a pretty early start, but with housing markets as competitive as they have been, the most aggressive buyers are likely out in the market already. For February, the Census bureau reported that sales of new homes came in at a 662,000 annual pace, down just slightly from an (upwardly) revised 664,000 January rate. Of course, the 0.3% monthly decline may actually be revised away just as was January’s initially-reported monthly decline. What won’t likely be revised away is that there are plenty of newly-constructed homes available to buy, an annualized 463,000 units, good enough to be an 8.4 month supply at the present rate of sale. To keep new homes moving, builders have been using incentives and price discounts; in February, the median price of a newly-built home was $400,500, down 7.6% from last February. Unlike existing home prices, which are high and likely to set new records again this spring, new home prices have actually retreated for a while, with the current median cost about 19% below October 2022’s peak ($496,800) mark.

The pretty flat pace for new home sales in February was more or less matched by a modest increase in signed contracts to purchase existing homes. The National Association of Realtors Pending Home Sales Index posted a 1.6% increase in February; in turn, and provided the offers make it all the way to closing, this may help lift existing home sales for March but more likely April by a little bit. Based upon the lag from a signed contract to a closing, we may see a modest dip in March closings (recorded sales) before an uptick for April, as January’s PHSI posted a 4.7% contraction. Even with the modest February boost, the PHSI is about 7% below year-ago levels, so housing activity remains modest at best.

With mortgage rates and home prices elevated, applications for mortgage credit have been have been trending generally lower with occasional upward flares. After such a flare in the week ending March 8, the next two weeks have erased some of that gain, and in the week ending March 22 a 0.7% decline in mortgage applications was reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Requests for funds to purchase homes eased slightly, declining 0.2%, while those to refinance existing mortgages dropped back by 1.6%. After declining more than a percentage point from November to early-mid February, mortgage rates have been somewhat firmer, bouncing around at levels above their recent bottom over the last few weeks.

Unless you’re impatiently waiting for lower interest rates, there’s nothing at all wrong with benign stability. The economy is performing, labor markets are stable and high, inflation is flat and firm, but could be lower. If you hope to see the Fed move sooner or more forcefully, we’ll need to see some change — a faltering in labor markets, a new and faster downturn for inflation, a darkening economic climate — but there’s little such indication that these kinds of pronounced changes are in the offing, at least in the near term.

With this as a backdrop, all we can do is wait for the slow drip of change that’s currently occurring to get to a place where the Fed is comfortable not only making the first change in short-term rates but also signaling that the path ahead will include more of them. Until we get to that place, or unless there is some other significant change in the economic or global climate, it’s hard to expect that we’ll see much change to mortgage rates.

There has been little actual trend for mortgage rates for some weeks now, and we’d expect that to continue next week. At least through the end of this week, indications are that we might see a 2-3 basis point decrease in 30-year fixed mortgage rates as reported by Freddie Mac when next Thursday comes. The month and quarter has come to an end, so perhaps the new month and start of the new quarter will bring with it some change.

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 

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Real estate related Articles

ATTOM
04-17-2024

U.S. Commercial Foreclosures Increase in March 2024
By ATTOM Team

CNN
03-30-2024

The Realtors settlement is already changing the way some Americans buy and sell homes
By Samantha Delouya

NAR
03-15-2024

National Association of REALTORS® Reaches Agreement to Resolve Nationwide Claims Brought by Home Sellers
By Suzanne Bouhia

urban.realtor
03-10-2024

Real Estate as an Asset Class
By CAR, NAR, S&P

California homeowners interested in building accessory dwelling units on their property just caught a break, potentially shaving off thousands of dollars in fees and permits.
In a move proponents say will help ease the Bay Area’s housing crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown on Tuesday signed Senate Bill 1069, making the so-called “granny units” easier and less expensive to build throughout the state.

For more read California eases restrictions on ‘granny units’ and http://www.hcd.ca.gov/policy-research/AccessoryDwellingUnits.shtml

Helpful resource for home owners

Many new home owners or owners who consider remodeling or rebuilding their homes should take advantage of their county Tax Assessor web site. These web site and their respective city building departments web site typically have vest information regarding the process for applying for permits, the impact on their taxes and many other resources that home owners should be aware are available for them.

For the San Mateo County Tax Assessor office visit http://www.smcare.org/default.asp
For Santa Clara County Tax Assessor visit https://www.sccassessor.org/index.php

The Silicon Valley 150 Index Corner

The Silicon Valley’s Real estate market is a derivative of the local economy–it prospers and withers depending on how well the local innovation-based sector performs. The San Jose Mercury News tracks the performances of the largest 150 publicly traded companies headquartered in Silicon Valley through an index called the SV150, which may be found at www.mercurynews.com. Stocks are valued based on several criteria, but one of the more important criteria is a company’s future earnings. Therefore, I see the SV150 as a leading indicator for Silicon Valley’s real estate market.

Investors Corner

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index Continues To Trend Upward In January 2024

NEW YORK, March 26, 2024:S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) today released the January 2024 results for the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices. The leading measure of U.S. home prices shows that three out of the 20 major metro markets reported month-over-month price increases. More than 27 years of history are available for the data series and can be accessed in full by going to CLICK HERE

U.S. Housing Markets Moving Into Rent Territory for First Time in Over 8 Years: Report

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San Mateo County (SMC): Home Sales Prices Up, Sales Down in Marc

Sales of single-family, re-sale homes in San Mateo County fell 1.4% in March, year-over-year. There were 209 homes sold in San Mateo County last month. The average since 2000 is 398.

The median sales price for single-family, re-sale homes was up 16.9% compared to last year.

The average sales price rose 9.3% year-over-year.

The sales price to list price ratio rose from 105.7% to 106.3%.

Inventory of single-family, re-sale homes was down 17.8% compared to last year. As of April 5th, there were 249 homes for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2000 is 1,287.

Days of Inventory, or the amount of time it would take to sell all homes for sale divided by how many homes have sold, fell from thirty-eight to thirty-six days.

It took eighteen days, on average, to sell a home last month. That is the time from when a home is listed to when it goes into contract.

The median sales price for re-sale condos rose 1% year-over-year.

Year-over-year, the average sales price fell 3.5%.

Condo sales were down 5.1% year-over-year. There were 75 condos sold last month. The average since January 2003 is 122.

Inventory was up 27.6% year-over-year.

As of April 5th, there were 148 condos for sale in San Mateo County. The average since January 2003 is 350.

Days of inventory rose from fifty-four to fifty-nine.

It took an average of forty-six days to sell a condo last month.

If you are planning on selling your property, call me for a free comparative market analysis.

March 2024 Sales Statistics (SMC)

* Total inventory is active listings plus pending listings. Active listings do not include pending.

You can get more information at: http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports

 

 

Call or email me if you have any questions.

For further details and a city-by-city breakdown statistics, go to http://avi.rereport.com/market_reports.

 

 

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